A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
