A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
